ASML exceeds sales forecasts, but 2026 becomes critical!

ASML exceeds sales forecasts, but 2026 becomes critical!

Dongguan, China - The world of semiconductor technology experienced recently exciting turbulence, especially through the announcements of ASML, the Dutch company that the monopoly has on decisive lithograph technologies. On July 16, 2025, ASML announced its quarterly figures for the second quarter of 2025, and the results surprised many analysts. With a turnover of 7.7 billion euros , the company exceeded expectations and achieved a net surplus of 2.3 billion euros , which is 29.8 % of the total income. With 53.7 %, the gross margin was able to achieve a record value, which is partly due to the strong demand for EUV lithograph systems and the positive effects through customs loads.

But despite these brilliant numbers, there was a huge damper: the ASML share price fell by 11 %, which meant a loss of $ 30 billion in the market evaluation. CEO Christophe Fouquet carefully commented on the growth prospects for 2026 and blamed the geopolitical tensions, especially the US China trade dispute. The current delivery times for ASML devices are between 12 and 18 months , which shows that current orders reflect a certain confidence in the demand for chips by 2026.

Effects of the US China trade dispute

The US China trade dispute remains a central topic for ASML. In the latest reporting it became clear that you are faced with limited export options. China of the ASML system sales, but due to the export technology restrictions, no more EU or DUV tools are available to China. These uncertainties could slow down the growth of the company, which is very worried. The company also plans to not publish any booking figures from next year to offer a clearer financial view, which could affect transparency regarding future demand trends.

ASML notes that the demand for AI infrastructure remains high. The next generation of chips is crucial for development in this area, which could offer the company an advantage in the long term. Nevertheless, ASML has to react to the pressing competition from China, where new developments in the field of EUV technology are in prospect.

China's technological progress

At the moment, China is working on her own advances in the EUV lithograph. A new system based on the technology of laser-induced discharge is tested in Huawei's Dongguan system. The test production should begin in the third quarter of 2025 with the aim of going into mass production in 2026. This step could challenge the monopoly position of ASML in the advanced lithograph. China's new approach to EUV radiation could lead to a cost reduction and better energy efficiency in the long term, which could turn out to be a serious competition for ASML.

But the emergence of a solid semiconductor production process in China will take years. ASML has refined its LPP technology for EUV systems for decades. Nevertheless, the pressure from China could bring numerous challenges that ASML have to make flexible in their strategic engagements to secure their market position.

FAZIT

The situation around the ASML and the global semiconductor market remains extremely dynamic. While the company presented strong results for the second quarter of 2025, geopolitical uncertainties and technological developments from China are in space. With a solid business area and the significant influence of AI demand, ASML also has opportunities, but it is more important than ever to maintain your own strategic position and relationships with the customer base in Asia. The coming months will show whether ASML can master the mixed market.

Further information can be found in the articles of Ainvest , techvedas and techpowerup .